Why a no-deal would bring more certainty than May’s deal
Theresa May went to Brussels and negotiated a deal which would leave us in most parts of the single market and the customs union until at least 2022. And it’s up to the EU as to when we can leave the customs union & single market.
This is the exact opposite of the “strong and stable” leadership she promised in the 2017 election. It extends the uncertainty to 2022, the year of the next election. But if we had a no-deal, we’d be leaving all aspects of the EU next year (2019.) Everyone would know what would happen under a no-deal: cutting ties entirely with the European Union. No, we would not run out of medicine. We would not need to stockpile food (the majority of the food we eat is made in Britain or non-EU countries anyway.) And planes with parts made in Britain would be allowed to land in the EU. (This one is just ridiculous!)
From there, we could negotiate free trade deals with countries such as the United States, China, South Korea, Japan and the rest of the Commonwealth. After we voted to leave, countries were preparing to sign trade deals with the UK. The world would be our oyster.
The Wetherspoons boss is even going on a tour of the UK promoting a no-deal Brexit. Wetherspoons is one of the biggest restaurants in the UK, and their boss saying a no-deal Brexit would be best surely means it would be good for most businesses. 200 major business leaders have also signed a letter saying that a no-deal Brexit would be best for them.
Dominic Raab, who recently resigned as Brexit secretary, said this deal would mean that we would have no say in the laws that the EU pass but we would still have to enforce them. Below is where we go into some of the big issues in detail:
You’ve probably heard of the Irish border, a problem which was never brought up in the referendum. One of the reasons why Theresa May thinks this deal is good is because it would solve the Irish Backstop problem. The Irish government said a few weeks ago that they will make sure there is no hard border between the two Irelands, even if there is a no-deal Brexit. Here is a tweet from the Change Britain campaign proving this:
The Irish government and the EU have both made absolutely clear that there won't be a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, even if there's no deal.
— Change Britain (@Change_Britain) November 20, 2018
And if you want to read the news article that says this, then here is the news article.
(Just for transparency, if you want to see all the tweets saying this, click here to go to the Twitter search results in a new tab.)
Freedom of movement
Although Theresa May says that freedom of movement will end under this deal, if you read the legal print, it just says that both sides are “dedicated” to the end of freedom of movement. (This didn’t appear in the first draft, but was updated a few days ago to reflect this.) This doesn’t necessarily mean freedom of movement will be ended, just that they are “dedicated” to end it.
The funny thing is, throughout the agreement, everything that the EU wants is in legally-binding text. However, everything the UK wants isn’t in legally-binding text. (Not that there is much in the text we want anyway.)
Trade and transition periods
I’ve already said that we’re remaining in the Customs Union and Single Market. Although the government says we will be leaving both in 2022, the legal print says that the transition period can be extended, “if needed”, until “20XX” This means the transition period could end in 2022 or in 2099. I don’t want either.
(If we had a no-deal and businesses genuinely need time to prepare, we could agree a transition period until the end of 2019. It would also be agreed that this transition period could not be extended.)
It does not respect the referendum result
Surprisingly, the Vote Leave website is still online. And I managed to find the reasons why people should “Vote Leave” in a single image. I managed to put it on my own server, so here it is:
This deal that Theresa May has managed to negotiate doesn’t deliver on any of these points. OK, maybe the £350 million a week figure was unrealistic, but the point was we would save a large amount of money. And with a no-deal, how much would we save? I want to find out that answer.
And when Theresa May says that she knows why people voted Brexit, she doesn’t. Why? She campaigned and voted for Remain. (Although she wasn’t one of the high-profile Remain campaigners, so most people didn’t know this.)
Brexit was the biggest democratic decision we had made in history. Yet those who are leading us don’t believe in Brexit, so why should we believe in them?
Up until a few days ago, I thought that it was only recently when Theresa May decided she wanted this deal. But she then admitted that this was the deal she had wanted all along, even when she said very clearly that we would be leaving the single market and customs union.
When I heard that, I thought it sounded like the last chapter of Animal Farm by George Orwell, when the pigs openly admit, without any criticism, that some animals are more equal than others.
If any person who is high up in the government is reading this, I just want to say one thing. Why? Why did you let this happen? Why did you let her negotiate this deal, despite knowing that it doesn’t deliver on the referendum result?
Today (25th November) is the day that the deal gets officially signed off by the EU.
By the next election in 2022 (unless there is a snap election) I will be of voting age. At the moment, I don’t know who to vote for. I have got ages to decide, but the way that the Conservative party negotiate Brexit will be the deciding factor for many people (including me) on whether we vote for them or not (or if we become like America where 100 million people who are eligible to vote don’t do so because they have no faith in the system.)
Thankfully, there are things you can do to make sure there is a no-deal Brexit (or a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU). The EU have said that they won’t renegotiate, so a no-deal is the only other option that genuinely delivers on the referendum result and what the people voted for.
Parliament are expected to vote on this deal in early December. It looks like that MPs, both Remainers and Leavers, will vote the deal down in Parliament – and rightly so. (Although the reasons why they are voting against the deal are different. Most of them don’t believe that the deal is what we voted for.) What is expected to happen is if (hopefully when) she loses this vote, there will be a no-deal, no Brexit, a second referendum or a general election.
Theresa May has said that one of the options she is considering is no Brexit at all. This is very unlikely to happen because:
- Nobody would vote Conservative, if at all, ever again. We would be like America where 100 million people who are eligible to vote don’t.
- It would stifle faith in democracy. We voted to leave the European Union, so let’s make sure it gets done.
- That would definitely be the end of Theresa May’s and most MP’s careers. This point is pretty self-explanatory.
Some people, mostly remainers, want another referendum, also known as a People’s Vote. Many high-profile remainers, including Harry Potter author JK Rowling, have supported this idea. Their official website says that they want a vote on the final deal. However, some who support this idea want a Remain option to be on the ballot paper as well.
I wouldn’t mind if the options on the ballot paper were Theresa May’s deal or no-deal, but that would mean the uncertainty would have to be extended. Personally, I don’t want a second referendum: we had a People’s Vote back in 2016!
Like the second referendum idea, we don’t have time to have another general election. Because of the terrible leadership Theresa May has been leading under, Labour would get in and, if they stuck to their 2017 manifesto, we would still remain in the single market, customs union and many other European projects. The same goes for the Liberal Democrats. No major party apart from the Conservatives clearly mentions that should they be in power, we would be leaving the single market and customs union.
(Although, I can see Nigel Farage leading UKIP or someone, somewhere, setting up a pro-Brexit party. I can see them getting a lot of backing!)
This is unlikely as we only had a general election last year (2017) and it is very unlikely another one could be held without extending Article 50 (the document that gives us two years to negotiate before we leave.)
To sum this up, a no-deal Brexit would not be the apocalypse some people are predicting. If we left with no deal on 29th March 2019, then we’d be just like any other non-EU country in the world. We would trade under WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules, which, unlike May’s deal, we would actually have a say upon.
Many Brexiteers say that May’s deal is worse than staying in the EU as we’d still be following the same rules but without any say in them.
If I could say one thing to Theresa May, I’d say: please keep your promises that you set out in the 2017 manifesto. And in case you haven’t seen what the Conservatives promised in their 2017 manifesto, here’s the part where they talk about Brexit (the important parts I have put in bold):
“As we leave the European Union, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement. There may be specific European programmes in which we might want to participate and if so, it will be reasonable that we make a contribution. We will determine a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, in accordance with the law and in the spirit of the UK’s continuing partnership with the EU. The principle, however, is clear: the days of Britain making vast annual contributions to the European Union will end.
“The negotiations will undoubtedly be tough, and there will be give and take on both sides, but we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK.”
“We will pursue free trade with European markets, and secure new trade agreements with other countries. We want to work together in the fight against crime and terrorism, collaborate in science and innovation – and secure a smooth, orderly Brexit. And we will protect the democratic freedom of the people of Gibraltar and our overseas territories to remain British, for as long as that is their wish.”
(Most of this information was found on pages 35 – 36 manifesto. You can download it here.)
Many people (including me) have explained May’s Brexit deal in one or two sentences.
I can explain it quicker: Not actually Brexit, and worse than Remaining. https://t.co/i2w9yuRjNu
— Susanna Reid (@susannareid100) November 23, 2018
An agreement that is legally unenforceable, and negotiations would only take place once we'd already handed over £39 billion! https://t.co/DLxHegn9BN
— Britain Means Business (@BritMnsBusn) November 22, 2018
It's like paying a plasterer – who you've never heard of before – in one payment before he's even started the job! It's ridiculous!
— Calum Childs (@CalumChilds) November 22, 2018
What do you think about a no-deal Brexit? Or any of these outcomes, for that matter? Please comment below – even if you disagree with me! And you can share this post to your family and friends using the share buttons below:
Edit – 22/01/2019 : If you want to see the a list of some of the business leaders backing Brexit, click here.
Also, May’s deal has since been rejected by Parliament by a majority of 230 – the largest in British political history! Many MPs (who are mainly Remainers) are now pushing for a second referendum – or a “People’s Vote” (a campaign actually run by the former Stronger In campaign – see green square below.)